In a pivotal moment for the SUI token, a scheduled $265 million unlock of approximately 74 million SUI tokens this week could introduce significant selling pressure, raising questions about the future price trajectory of the asset. The upcoming release represents about 2.28% of the circulating supply and is set to take place on May 1, just as demand for the token has been gaining momentum.

Data from Tokenomist shows that, while only 33% of the total SUI supply has been unlocked to date, the fresh influx of tokens is likely to stir the market at a time when SUI has recently experienced a notable price increase. With the token trading at around $3.62—following a strong breakout above the $3.30 resistance level—traders are weighing the potential impact of the release, which could prompt profit-taking among those who have benefited from the recent rally.

Despite concerns about a potential sell-off, the fundamentals of the SUI network remain strong, with its on-chain metrics showing considerable improvement. Total value locked (TVL) across SUI-based decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols has risen by 40% since early April, reaching $1.73 billion, according to DeFiLlama data. Additionally, the stablecoin market cap on the SUI network surged from $630 million to $880 million over the same period, signaling growing investor confidence. Daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes have consistently hovered around $500 million, and over the last week, the network has processed more than $3.6 billion in trades, pushing its monthly volume past the $11 billion mark.

These metrics suggest that SUI’s growing DeFi ecosystem may be strong enough to absorb the newly unlocked supply without significant downturn. However, traders are closely monitoring the technical indicators, which show a mixed short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 78, signaling that SUI may be in overbought territory, suggesting the potential for a pullback or consolidation in the near term. Despite this, momentum indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain in positive territory, continuing to favor bullish sentiment.

Looking ahead, the key levels to watch for SUI include the $3.60 mark, which could serve as a critical support level. If buying pressure holds, SUI might push toward the $4.00 psychological resistance, attracting momentum traders and possibly triggering further gains. However, should the market react negatively to the unlock, a retracement to the $3.30 level or even a deeper pullback to the $3.00 zone could be in store.

Ultimately, the market’s ability to absorb the unlock without significant disruption will be crucial in determining the next phase for SUI. If demand continues to build alongside strong DeFi fundamentals, the token could maintain its upward momentum. Otherwise, a short-term consolidation between $3.30 and $3.60 might precede a new trend.