Maintenance-related reduced output at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has driven a rise in West African fuel imports, as the region has increasingly turned back to European suppliers to meet demand.

Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea shows that gasoline imports into Nigeria and Togo jumped from about 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) in January to over 300,000 b/d in March, then eased to roughly 250,000 b/d in April — nearly matching Nigeria’s total national demand of around 300,000 b/d.

The PUNCH notes that the Dangote refinery had previously denied shutting down its petrol-processing unit for maintenance.

According to S&P Global’s Wednesday report, the Dangote refinery is now restarting its main gasoline unit, the residue fluid catalytic cracker, and is assessing whether a second maintenance turnaround will be necessary, a company executive stated.

A Dangote executive, speaking to Platts—part of S&P Global Commodity Insights—on May 13, revealed that the company is currently bringing its refining units back online following a four-week turnaround aimed at resolving ‘design issues.’

The refinery is increasing output from its RFCC, alkylation, and polypropylene units, but it has yet to decide if a second maintenance shutdown will be required later this year.

“The real picture can be seen only when we open the equipment,” the source has noted.

Output from the Lagos refinery has become a key indicator for global gasoline crack spreads since production began last year. An unplanned maintenance in April, which took about 100,000 barrels per day offline, contributed to a rally in Eurobob prices.

The refinery executive noted that the plant’s crude distillation unit was last operating at 550,000 barrels per day, approximately 85 percent of its full capacity.

Following test runs that began in the third quarter of 2024—around nine months after the refinery’s inauguration—the RFCC unit had reached 70 percent of its capacity before the recent outage, the executive reported.

The company now aims to ramp up this unit to full capacity, enabling the refinery to finally process crude at its maximum potential of 650,000 barrels per day, he added.

With the RFCC offline, the refinery had to depend solely on its 120,000 barrels per day reformer to meet local gasoline demand in April.

Market sources reported limited access to gasoline cargoes and LPG during the outage but noted that by May 12, supply availability had improved.

Meanwhile, other secondary units operated without interruption throughout the maintenance, allowing the refinery to sustain steady exports of gasoil, jet fuel, and residual fuel, which are usually processed in the RFCC unit.

The report further noted that before the unit was taken offline, Dangote officials were preparing for a scheduled month-long turnaround in June, although some speculators suggested the April maintenance may have pre-empted these planned works.

The Dangote Group exceeded many analyst expectations by commissioning the RFCC and launching its first gasoline in September 2024. However, the unit has experienced multiple outages in 2025, delaying hopes for operational stability.

S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that a June RFCC turnaround at the refinery could boost global gasoline crack spreads by approximately $3 per barrel.

Market sources reveal that Togo is increasingly serving as a crucial entry point for Nigerian imports, with traders diverting larger volumes to the offshore Lome market. From there, supplies are transferred from large shipments onto smaller vessels.

This shift towards importing through Lome and using breakbulk methods has been driven by financial incentives aimed at minimizing tax liabilities and maintaining transactions in US dollars, as the Nigerian government encourages businesses to trade in naira.

The rise in imports to West Africa has also been supported by lower freight costs. Platts reported the Clean Long-range UKC-West Africa freight rate at $22.68/mt on May 12, down from $28.25/mt the previous year.