The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has published its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2025, indicating a slight relief in Nigeria’s inflation trend compared to both the previous month and the same period last year.

According to the data, the headline inflation rate eased to 23.71% year-on-year, down from 24.23% in March 2025 and significantly lower than the 33.69% recorded in April 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation dropped markedly to 1.86% in April, compared to 3.90% in March, signaling a slower pace in the rise of consumer goods and services prices.

The NBS report read, “The Consumer Price Index rose to 119.52 in April 2025, reflecting a 2.18-point increase from the preceding month. In April 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 23.71 per cent relative to the March 2025 headline inflation rate of 24.23 per cent. Looking at the movement, the April 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.52 per cent compared to the March 2025 Headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 9.99 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2024 (33.69 per cent). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in April 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., April 2024), though with a different base year.”

Despite a modest decline in Nigeria’s overall inflation rate for April 2025, 10 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) experienced inflation levels surpassing 30 per cent, underscoring ongoing price pressures in various regions.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that although the national year-on-year headline inflation rate eased to 23.71 per cent in April, several states continued to grapple with significantly higher inflation, reflecting uneven economic strain across the country.

Urban inflation—which captures price movements in cities and towns where most Nigerians live—remained high at 24.29% in April 2025, indicating that urban households are still struggling with rising living expenses.

The monthly urban inflation rate declined to 1.18% from 3.96% in March, while rural inflation stood at 22.83% year-on-year, down from 31.64% in April 2024. On a monthly basis, rural inflation was 3.56%, slightly lower than the 3.73% recorded in March.

Reportsmd that inflation exceeded 30% in 10 states and the Federal Capital Territory: Enugu, Kebbi, Niger, Benue, Ekiti, Nasarawa, Zamfara, Delta, Gombe, Sokoto, and Abuja—far above the national average of 23.71%. These figures underscore the uneven distribution of inflationary pressure across the country.

Enugu State recorded the highest headline inflation rate at 36.0% year-on-year, with a steep 12.3% month-on-month rise in the all-items index. Food inflation was 24.4% year-on-year, with a 3.9% increase from the previous month, pointing to sustained pressure on food prices.

Kebbi State followed with a 35.1% all-items inflation rate and a 5.4% monthly increase. Food inflation in the state rose to 33.8%, up by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating food costs as a major inflation driver.

In Niger State, the inflation rate jumped to 34.8% year-on-year with a 14.7% monthly surge—the highest among the affected states. Food inflation stood at 24.3%, with a 5.7% month-on-month rise.

Benue State showed particularly troubling figures, with food inflation soaring to 51.8% year-on-year and rising 25.6% month-on-month—the steepest monthly food price increase—likely driven by persistent insecurity in the region. The state’s overall inflation stood at 34.3%, with a 12.8% monthly increase.

Ekiti State recorded 34.0% for both all-items and food inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a monthly basis, all-items inflation climbed by 11.0%, while food inflation rose by 16.7%.

Nasarawa State had an all-items inflation rate of 33.3% year-on-year, with a 16.0% monthly increase. Food inflation was 23.3%, with a 7.4% monthly rise.

Zamfara State reported a 33.2% annual inflation rate, with a 4.6% increase month-on-month. Food inflation stood at 24.0%, rising marginally by 0.4%.

These trends reflect deep-rooted inflation challenges, particularly in food pricing, which continue to erode purchasing power and weigh heavily on households across various parts of Nigeria.

The Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, recorded an all-items inflation rate of 32.9% year-on-year, with a notable 9.8% increase on a monthly basis. Interestingly, food inflation in Abuja saw a slight month-on-month decline of 0.7%, settling at 22.2% year-on-year—an indication of possible food price stabilisation in the capital.

In Delta State, the all-items inflation rate was 31.9% year-on-year, with a 10.7% month-on-month rise. Food inflation stood at 15.9%, with a modest 2.2% increase from the previous month. The gap between food and overall inflation suggests that non-food components—such as housing, transport, and utilities—are driving the surge in prices.

Gombe State posted an all-items inflation rate of 31.0%, with a 9.0% month-on-month increase. Food inflation came in at 26.4% year-on-year, rising 5.8% month-on-month—indicating widespread price increases across various goods and services.

In Sokoto State, inflation reached 30.5% year-on-year, with a sharp 16.3% month-on-month surge. Food inflation also remained high at 25.3%, with a significant 13.1% increase compared to the previous month.

These state-level figures underscore the uneven inflationary trends across Nigeria. While some regions are grappling with sharp month-to-month spikes, others face a sustained elevation in prices. Notably, food inflation—a critical component of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index due to the population’s consumption habits—remains alarmingly high in states like Benue, Kebbi, Ekiti, and Sokoto, where year-on-year increases are significantly above the national average.

This persistent rise in prices continues to put significant pressure on household incomes, intensifying both poverty and food insecurity across the country. However, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a notable deceleration in national food inflation, which dropped to 21.26% year-on-year in April 2025—down sharply from 40.53% during the same period in 2024.

This steep decline is largely credited to a change in the CPI base year and a reduction in the prices of key food staples such as maize flour, wheat grain, dried okro, yam flour, soybeans, rice, and different varieties of beans.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation slightly eased to 2.06% in April, representing a small drop of 0.12 percentage points from 2.18% recorded in March. The 12-month average food inflation rate came in at 31.43%, a slight decline from 32.74% the previous year.

Meanwhile, core inflation—which strips out the more volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy—also slowed. It fell to 23.39% year-on-year, down from 26.84% in April 2024. On a monthly basis, core inflation saw a significant decline to 1.34% in April from 3.73% in March, suggesting a general easing in underlying inflationary pressures outside of food and energy costs.

Over the 12-month period ending in April 2025, core inflation averaged 24.91%, reflecting an increase from 22.84% recorded in April 2024. During the same month, energy prices saw a sharp 13.6% month-on-month surge, building on a 9.21% rise in March, indicating sustained pressure from fuel and utility costs.

Inflation on farm produce slowed significantly, dropping to 0.95% in April from 2.64% the previous month. Likewise, services inflation eased to 2.20% from 3.44%, while the goods index posted a more modest 1.89% month-on-month increase.

Despite these signs of deceleration in overall inflation, the National Bureau of Statistics report underscores a critical concern: the easing trend at the national level has yet to provide tangible relief for many Nigerians, particularly in states still grappling with inflation rates above 30%. This underscores the uneven impact of economic conditions across regions and the ongoing strain on household finances.

Reacting to the development, Dr. Femi Egbesola, National President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, stated that despite the modest easing of inflation, Nigeria’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have yet to experience any significant relief.

He asserted, “The marginal drop in Nigeria’s inflation rate to 23.71 per cent in April 2025 is a welcome development on the surface, but for MSMEs, the impact is yet to be truly felt. While the easing of inflationary pressure, especially in food prices, offers a glimmer of hope, the realities on the ground for small businesses remain harsh. Input costs are still high, consumer purchasing power remains weak, and access to affordable financing is limited.

“Many MSMEs are still grappling with the cumulative effects of prolonged inflation, from dwindling sales to supply chain disruptions and eroded working capital. Until these gains are sustained over time and translate into lower operating costs and improved consumer demand, the MSME sector will remain under significant strain.

“We urge the government to complement these macroeconomic gains with targeted support policies for MSMEs, including tax reliefs, access to low-interest credit, and market access support, to ensure that the sector can begin to recover and contribute meaningfully to economic growth and job creation.”

In a similar vein, the Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria, Dele Oye, said the decline in inflation hasn’t been felt.

He said, “Our members have not felt the impact. Too early to comment on the report.”

Similarly, Segun Kuti-George, the National Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, remarked that the decline in inflation was too minimal to make any significant or noticeable difference.

“The Consumer Price Index is universally used to measure inflation rates, and the NBI claimed to have used the same. Hence, it would be said to be correct.

“However, the decrease in change is too little for any meaningful or noticeable impact. We in the manufacturing sector have not felt any positive change in the prices of our inputs. Prices of basic raw materials are still maintaining an upward trend. Therefore, we are very far from Uhuru.”

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry qualified April’s 23.71 per cent inflation rate as unremarkable. While the chamber acknowledged that inflation dropping by 0.52 per cent from the 24.23 per cent recorded in March 2025 meant that inflation was not worsening, it ruled out any celebration, rather urging more focus on workable inflation-reduction policies.

“This is nothing significant statistically or even in terms of impact on all of the economic metrics,” Idahosa stated in a phone interview with The PUNCH. “If anything, the current interpretation is that inflation has remained flat. A drop of that kind of magnitude is not significant in any sense.”

Idahosa warned that there is no reason to rejoice at April’s inflation rate, stating, “No, there’s no reason to rejoice. There is just reason to be hopeful that what has started as a signal will begin to manifest in terms of a larger drop in inflation rates month-on-month.”

The LCCI president offered a cautious hope that a marginal drop in April’s inflation might result in a slow build-up to a sizable lowering of inflation rates, given the right conditions.

Idahosa explained: “The only thing to be said about (April’s inflation rate) is that it’s not getting worse. It’s flat, and it gives a sign that we are going to see a trend of gradually lowering inflation rates. It’s very gradual because the factors that are driving it are working very gradually.”

According to the LCCI, reduced transportation costs enabled by electric and Compressed Natural Gas vehicles will precede any significant reduction in inflation. However, Idahosa noted that high costs have slowed the pace of converting to these alternative energy sources.

“The factors that ensure we are reducing the cost of transportation include getting more CNG buses and electric vehicles, obviously takes a lot of cost to convert to, whether they are buses in a state like Lagos and a few other states that are bringing out electric vehicles,” he added.

The LCCI predicted a consistent drop in inflation over four to five months, noting that the forces that have kept inflation flat will continue to work until the country sees a significant drop.

Further, Idahosa observed that, with April’s inflation rate, any private sector expectations of the Monetary Policy Committee loosening interest rates are dashed.

“(April’s drop) has no immediate impact on interest rates. There is no reason to expect any significant drop in interest rates,” he asserted. “What the business community is looking at is a kind of signalling from the Central Bank of Nigeria to reduce the monetary policy rate by a very small amount; to send a message that in the future, MPR will slide down slowly but steadily.

“We do not expect any dramatic drops in the MPR and general interest rates, seeing we are in a plateau and just coasting around where we are in the economy now.”

Addressing the root causes, including improving agricultural productivity, enhancing supply chain efficiency, stabilising energy prices, and boosting market competition, will be essential in curbing inflationary pressures.

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will average 22.1 per cent in 2025, attributing the anticipated decline to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary stance aimed at restoring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations.

The projection was contained in a statement published Monday on the World Bank’s website, following the formal launch of the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update report in Abuja.

The biannual report, titled “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth,” assesses recent economic trends and policy responses, and outlines priorities for sustaining reforms and promoting inclusive growth.

According to the report, while macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly, particularly GDP growth, revenue mobilisation, and fiscal consolidation, headline inflation remains a pressing concern.

“The report further adds that inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1 per cent in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations,” the statement read.

The World Bank identified the major drivers of elevated inflation in recent years to include the removal of petrol subsidies, exchange rate unification, rising logistics and energy costs, and recurring food supply disruptions.

However, it noted that the Central Bank’s ongoing monetary tightening efforts are starting to show positive signs, with inflationary pressures expected to ease going into 2025.