The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is facing growing criticism as industry experts and regulators raise concerns about the transparency and efficiency of its refinery operations. A recent report from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals serious setbacks at both the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries, contradicting public assurances made by NNPCL officials.

Warri Refinery Shuts Down Shortly After Relaunch

Despite being declared operational on December 30, 2024, the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC) was shut down less than a month later, on January 25, 2025, due to safety issues with its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) Main Heater. This closure occurred despite a reported $897.6 million spent on refurbishment.

Located in Delta State, the 125,000 barrels-per-day refinery was expected to significantly boost Nigeria’s fuel production capacity. President Bola Tinubu had previously praised the refurbishment, describing it as a milestone toward energy self-sufficiency. However, industry stakeholders now express serious concern about the plant’s inability to remain operational.

Port Harcourt Refinery Underperforms

The Port Harcourt refinery, which resumed production in November 2024 following a $1.5 billion rehabilitation, is also underperforming. According to the NMDPRA, the refinery has been operating at just 37.87% of its installed capacity over the past six months—well below the NNPCL's claim of 70%.

While the plant was expected to produce 218 million litres of refined products monthly, actual output averaged just 82.55 million litres, exposing a significant shortfall. Production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) declined steadily, eventually dropping to zero in March and April 2025. Conversely, diesel production increased significantly, highlighting a skewed production focus.

Conflicting Reports and Credibility Issues

These revelations undermine earlier assurances from NNPCL’s former CEO, Mele Kyari, who had insisted during a December 2024 tour that the refinery was fully operational. Although the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) had lauded the plant’s apparent performance, new data reveals that it never exceeded 42.23% utilisation.

Missed Deadlines and Disappointing Outcomes

The Port Harcourt refinery's rehabilitation was marred by repeated delays, with multiple missed deadlines—from an initial December 2023 projection to a later target of September 2024. Even at its peak in January 2025, it operated at less than half its full capacity, and PMS output continued to decline in subsequent months.

Implications for Nigeria's Energy Strategy

These findings raise serious doubts about Nigeria’s ability to meet its energy security and self-sufficiency goals, despite significant financial investments. President Tinubu has championed refinery revitalization as part of his broader economic strategy, but persistent inefficiencies and inconsistent output threaten to derail those objectives.

Industry observers are now calling for improved oversight, greater transparency, and stronger accountability within NNPCL to ensure public investments deliver measurable, sustainable results.