Africa could be heading toward a major fuel supply crisis, with a projected shortfall of about 86 million tonnes by 2040, according to a new report by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

The report, released on Thursday in Nairobi, warns that the continent’s heavy dependence on imported fuel and other essential goods is leaving it highly vulnerable to global supply disruptions and geopolitical conflicts.

According to the AFC, Africa currently imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel, as well as large volumes of essential commodities such as food, fertiliser, plastics, and steel, valued at about $230 billion annually.

The report projects that fuel import dependence will continue to rise, increasing from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to about 86 million tonnes by 2040.

Experts say this growing gap is equivalent to nearly three large-scale refineries similar to those operated by the Dangote Group in Nigeria, currently among the biggest in Africa.

AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze said recent global tensions, including the Iran-related conflict, have exposed Africa’s vulnerability to major supply routes and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global fuel transportation.

She warned that disruptions in such key routes could have serious consequences for fuel-importing regions, particularly in East Africa.

The report also highlighted Africa’s dependence on imported fertiliser, noting that recent global conflicts have further exposed supply risks. Despite holding about 80 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, Africa produces only about 20 percent of the global fertiliser supply.

Babihuga-Nsanze described this imbalance as a missed opportunity, saying Africa has the resources needed to strengthen its own production capacity and reduce reliance on imports.

The report further stressed the need for investment in energy infrastructure, better utilisation of existing assets, and the development of regional energy hubs to address the looming shortage.

It cited examples such as underutilised hydropower in Angola and climate-challenged dams in Zambia as signs of inefficiencies that need urgent attention.

The AFC concluded that improving energy security and boosting local production will be key to protecting Africa from future global shocks and ensuring long-term economic stability.