The United States tourism industry is facing a sharp and potentially long-lasting downturn, with projected losses reaching up to $90 billion this year. The decline is fueled by worsening global sentiment toward the U.S., driven by rising trade tensions and inflammatory rhetoric under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Once-reliable travel partners such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany are now pulling back, both in tourism and in consumer support. According to new data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Canadian travel has seen a sharp decrease—down 12.5 percent in February and 18 percent in March year-over-year. The shift follows a series of trade measures directly targeting Canada, along with comments from President Trump suggesting that the country might as well be the “51st state”—remarks that have sparked widespread backlash.

In Europe, the pattern is similar. The National Travel and Tourism Office reported that travel from the UK and Germany, two of the United States’ most consistent tourism markets, declined by as much as 29 percent in March. Overall, travel from Western Europe fell by 12 percent—marking one of the steepest non-pandemic-related slumps in recent history.

Economists warn that these declines could have ripple effects across the broader U.S. economy. In a recent note, analysts at Goldman Sachs projected that under a worst-case scenario, the combined effects of reduced tourism and foreign consumer boycotts could result in $90 billion in lost revenue this year. While the immediate drag on GDP may appear modest, it adds to existing pressures from trade disputes and declining exports. As a result, Goldman Sachs expects U.S. economic growth in 2025 to fall short of general forecasts.

Industry experts say the warning signs are increasingly difficult to ignore. Jan Freitag, Senior Vice President of Lodging Insights at STR Global, noted that a range of data sources and anecdotal reports confirm a noticeable slowdown. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, argued that the reputational damage may take years to repair. Even if the administration changes course, he added, the perception of the U.S. as an unwelcoming destination will not shift overnight.

Not all regions are feeling the effects equally. In Miami, tourism numbers have remained stable so far, thanks in part to a more affluent and diverse international visitor base. David Whitaker, President and CEO of the Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau, said the impact of recent political developments came after the city’s peak season. Hotel bookings and rates have held up well, though he cautioned that the picture could change in the coming months.

While some cities remain insulated for now, the broader trend points toward a challenging year for the U.S. tourism sector. Industry leaders are already considering new marketing strategies, including a pivot toward less politically sensitive markets. However, with diplomatic relationships strained and public perception abroad shifting, the road to recovery may be longer than expected.